They were already going through a massive disruption process with the arrival of the New Distribution Capability (NDC) and with the whole challenge to the system with direct selling via airline.com. About a quarter of the total revenue effectively for the European airlines flying the North Atlantic comes from the North Atlantic market. Welcome to the 6-Oct-2020 edition of CAPA’s Coronavirus and Aviation global COVID-19 update. International cooperation will be key. For these reasons, we see China’s international market outstripping a restored North Atlantic market – currently moribund – by 2024, and even starting to rival its own domestic market, measured in RPKs, by 2030. Staffing levels are increasing at LNG Canada following a COVID-19 outbreak in November and December. That implies not just adjustments to cost, which is really where we've been focusing until now. In other words, every revenue kilometre flown is going to be losing money. Travel system distrust (across the entire travel journey), budget consciousness and working from home also challenge business travel. News updates. are reviewing pandemic plans and looking at new steps they can take to prevent an outbreak of COVID-19. Share this article. Air Canada CleanCare+. What's the new situation going to look like? Its international market is predominantly outbound, or has been so far, which means that the Chinese carriers are in a much better position to carry that traffic. The airline is one of many to be struggling with the coronavirus pandemic and its effect on the aviation industry.. “And now my fear is that, more than at any point in this pandemic situation, Canadian airlines are financially badly skewered and can’t recover as much as international airlines. Airline consolidation is inevitable, including airline departures and restructuring, the keyword in this – a fundamental restructuring. Effective March 26, 2020, the Government of Canada put in place mandatory 14-day self-isolation for all persons entering Canada, even if they do not have COVID-19 symptoms. Importantly now, the early markets to recover will be the domestic ones, where airlines don't necessarily need the GDSs so actively because brand recognition is strong, and it's much easier to sell directly in their home market. And this next graph was actually produced two months ago before the new waves of infection occurred. For example, IATA calculated just recently that the size of the revenue pool for airlines globally will be about half of what it was in 2019. (In the Dec-2019 Airline Leader, our fourth major prospect for the decade was the long overdue erosion of national ownership rules. Of course, it’s a direct issue managed by the aviation industry. Governments have “invested” in their airlines and may (or even should) feel a taxpayer duty to support their investment. So as IATA asks again: can even cash break-even be achieved in 2021? "We are fully seized with the issue of how hard the air sector has been hit because of COVID-19, and we are committed to providing assistance to Canada's air sector." Like the threat of terrorism, we will have to learn to live with the virus. As a result of that, unsurprisingly, IATA would suggest that some airlines are going to run out of cash fairly soon. Long haul flying is particularly endangered, with loss of business travel revenues and the closure and uncertainty around opening of borders. So, in reality we're looking at somewhere between a third and a half of revenues for the entire market for the full year 2020. Indeed, for those countries with large domestic markets it will provide a great tailwind. Kenny reveals that he does not encourage travel during the pandemic, even though he considers it safe and economically beneficial. A COVID reality check for airlines. Domestic airline figures are back to 2019 levels and higher in some cases. These features are not going to be the same in future. The LCCs don't have the monopoly on these aircraft, but each of the major markets will be receiving large numbers of long haul narrowbody aircraft, A321s, MAX's and the like. And I would anticipate very strongly that there'll be more major airline long haul JVs. The number one projection was that environmental pressures are going to be immense. It’s quite probable in all these circumstances that once airline activity returns to, say, half of its previous levels, as soon as it becomes widely noticeable again, the opposition will greatly intensify. See: CAPA Live: KLM CEO straps in for aviation's bumpy recovery. Now, there'll be some pockets which receive it very, very quickly. Blindly trying to restore a 2019 status quo will only lead to tears. It is time the industry and governments faced up to the fact that restoring the status quo ante is no longer an option. There is another, very large, shoe still to drop. The report contains a small selection of news briefs and CAPA commentary from around the world. If our assessment appears pessimistic, I would argue it's more realistic than not. 2019 levels of activity are still several years, not months, away. Airlines have been enormously conspicuous for their absence during COVID-19. With its residents stuck in the building and most regular activities curtailed by … Moreover, a recent survey (and there are many surveys, of course) suggested that about two thirds of frequent travellers still distrust the airline system and hotels to protect them adequately from the virus while travelling on business. At the end of last year in CAPA’s Airline Leader of Dec-2019, (in another age! That combination would give you an outcome of about one third of the gross revenue of 2019 over the full year. Now, at the beginning of 2021, the country appears to be moving backwards instead of forwards in easing its quarantines, adding the additional requirement of testing … The move to sack about 1,700 employees at the nation's flagship airline, plus another 200 at its regional carriers, and slash its planned flight capac.. Emission taxes will continue to grow…. As we’ve seen, governments are going to continue to be very wary of opening borders – and will be quick to close them if the need arises. And then the third major disruptive force, the likely transformation of international networks as long haul, low cost aircraft are introduced to the market. “People shouldn’t travel. That should accelerate the regrowth of their domestic markets. A COVID reality check for airlines. Most of the companies they interviewed had previously anticipated that it would take about a year to make the transition. Analysis . The network transformation is not just about LCCs, but it's important because they're actually growing month-on-month as well. The reason that the companies hadn't done it before for productivity reasons was simply because the priority just hadn’t been allocated to the change. Capacity reduction and parking . In the meantime, universal testing, tracing, commonality of standards, and multilateral cooperation is going to be so vital in this process. That disparity will start to be corrected quickly in late 2021/2022 as conditions settle. 7. Let’s turn to the key external forces that will confront the industry over this decade, as the impact of the coronavirus gradually subsides. Nor will flight shaming go away, which was so strong in Europe so long ago in 2019. For Air Canada alone, Roy said that refunds to passengers would likely cost the company more than $ 1 billion. Then there are some key new scenario ingredients that have arrived this year: International flying is not going to become stable for a long time, let's face that. “COVID-19 has led to an unprecedented situation in the aviation sector,” said Allison St-Jean, a press aide for the country’s new transport minister, Omar Alghabra. Air Canada latest airline to cut capacity as COVID pandemic continues to hurt aviation. We’ve made a very modest assumption that China domestic will continue to grow from this level (about 100% of its 2019 level and 50% larger than US domestic, at year-end 2020) at 5% per annum right through the decade. See: CAPA Live: KLM CEO straps in for aviation's bumpy recovery. Added to that we've got the pressure from corporate cost-cutting to reduce spending, and thirdly, there is the impact of what we're doing here today with this virtual event, doing business online; online meetings offer alternatives, much greater than anyone had previously anticipated. By Megha Paul On Jan 6, 2021. And I think even that 50% revenue drop is probably optimistic. However, with more than 72,000 active COVID-19 cases across Canada, some of those involving a new, potentially more contagious coronavirus variant, reducing quarantine does not appear to be a government priority. “How did you take the test? Network profiles will accentuate long haul narrowbody aircraft operations. Posted 5 January 2021 09:18. November 10, 2020: November 10, 2020: November 23, 2020: Order under Section 32.01 of the Railway Safety Act due to COVID-19, No. Domestic flights with confirmed COVID-19 cases Airline Flight number Departing Destination Flight date [yyyy-mm-dd] Affected rows; Air Canada / Jazz AC8398 Vancouver (YVR) Kelowna (YLW) 2020-12-28 23 to 27 Air Canada / Jazz AC8967 Montreal (YUL) Ottawa (YOW) The state wants to do more to stop the federal government from entering and exiting the country and, in some cases, traveling across state borders. This briefing analyses the impact COVID-19 (C-19) is having on the risk profile of the aviation industry. Restoring Aviation During COVID-19 . WestJet announced on Friday a wide range of services and headcount reductions by significantly reducing the position … But first, recognising and allocating resources to the specific area is essential. “I can understand why the government is taking so long, but at the same time they have to do something,” Roy said, adding that air travel is essential because Canada is so big. Can I be in Cairo and have a doctor come to the hotel, test and take the paper to the airport?” I don’t know, “Ericsson said. The majority of this website will not function as intended without JavaScript enabled. As a result, passengers say,” No, I won’t go. “As a result, hundreds of millions to billions of dollars of economic activity do not occur in Canada and do not occur on Canadian-owned or based airlines.”. The airline is collaborating with Spartan Bioscience Inc – an Ottawa-based biotech company that specialises in portable DNA testing – to identify the best way to use Covid test methods wherever they are needed in an aviation environment. Its recovery from the coronavirus shutdown is almost complete, while other large domestic markets continue to languish (although it is important to note that China revenues remain depressed as yields stay low). [ Sign up for our Health IQ newsletter for the latest coronavirus updates ]. Statistics Canada is mailing out test kits to tens of thousands of people to study the prevalence of coronavirus in the country, in the first survey of its kind launched by the agency.High schools on P.E.I. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the aviation industry due to travel restrictions and a slump in demand among travellers.. About 6,176 generic drugs available in the UAE’s pharmaceutical market. But they will be vastly more conspicuous for their return.”. Learn about civil aviation in Canada. Aviation 2020 to 2030. Twitter Facebook LinkedIn Canada has added more screening requirements for passengers … Subscription Required Canada Adds COVID-19 Testing On Top Of Existing Quarantine Mandate is published in Aviation Daily, an Aviation Week … So airlines that are well-positioned in this will be very much in the front line of change and disruption. During the COVID-19 pandemic, experts are struggling to catch news of changes in staff and services for Canada’s two largest airlines, so experts say Canadian aviation unless federal intervention. The move to sack about 1,700 employees at the nation's flagship airline, plus another 200 at its regional carriers, and slash its planned flight capac.. The following is a lightly edited version of a presentation by Peter Harbison, CAPA Chairman emeritus, talking at CAPA Live on 11-Nov-2020. “But at the same time, we have made it very clear that people are expecting to be redeemed. Air Canada CleanCare+ is our industry-leading health & safety program for every step of your travel journey, including complimentary COVID-19 insurance coverage*, end-to-end cleaning protocols, and flexible bookings. That system has been in need of disruption for a long time. What did you accept as a result of the test? Top news headlines: - Canada aviation stalls as restrictions … Share this article. We offer this product to our active CAPA Members, as well as visitors to our website to help our industry navigate through this crisis. “Canada will quickly implement the requirement for all arriving passengers to have a negative PCR Covid test three… And until several billion people can be vaccinated, the border situation will remain uncertain and, most likely, fragmented. Most of the developed nations in fact. It also has a supportive government (as others do), but China’s is particularly supportive. “We used to be at stake. Many airlines themselves have shrunk already; and they will stay shrunk. Business travel has become an endangered species as 60% of business revenues evaporate. Elevate Aviation is launching a new project in February 2021 aimed to address issues in the aviation industry in the province of Alberta. If, as often suggested, WFH will in future account for around 40% of the average office worker’s week, the greater convenience of virtual connections is further entrenched. Large customer segments will retain levels of concern about flying internationally. A further, associated factor often overlooked is the combined effect of working from home (WFH) – this too is predicted to have a long future. Introduction . In all of these circumstances, digitisation is increasingly important. As a result, we will be confronted by an airline industry that is considerably smaller and less competitive, those remaining will be heavily indebted, and governments will be more intrusive. The blue bars at the either ends of this slide are the unit revenues for 2020 and (projected) 2021. Restoring Aviation During COVID-19 . COVID is going to accelerate that process, particularly because, in many cases, passengers will prefer to be flying point-to-point rather than going through a hub. 10 is required to deal with a significant risk, direct or indirect, to aviation safety or the safety of the public;. There's a host of environmental forces all ready to resist a full return to flying. Effects of Novel Coronavirus (COVID‐19) on Civil Aviation: Economic Impact Analysis Montréal, Canada 30 December 2020 Air Transport Bureau. COVID … Welcome to the 6-Oct-2020 edition of CAPA’s Coronavirus and Aviation global COVID-19 update. And digital innovation can be a game-changer. Canadians may face travel restrictions for years if the coronavirus vaccine is not available to everyone. Oman receives second batch of COVID-19 vaccines. The path to restoring international air services is not going to be solved quickly by a vaccine. This was the key takeaway from the introductory presentation at CAPA Live on 11-Nov-2020. North Atlantic is probably the most sensitive to the loss of business travel. Even distribution of the vaccines faces major logistical, political and financial hurdles (as we’re talking about elsewhere in today's CAPA Live), and will take at least two years to be distributed globally. In the UK, there was talk last year of a flying levy or banning frequent flyer programmes because they encouraged travel. It's really important to get that to sink in. Meanwhile, with a likely further decline as a new wave of infections washes through in 1Q2021, the US will be subdued in full-year 2021, then resurging in 2022. These first two features will determine the progress of international flying for at least another year, until predictable border opening is restored and passenger confidence returns. Whereas the annexed Interim Order Respecting Certain Requirements for Civil Aviation Due to COVID-19, No. The dramatic drop in demand for passenger air transport (and freight, to a lesser extent) due to the COVID-19 pandemic and containment measures is threatening the viability of many firms in both the air transport sector and the rest of the aviation industry, with many jobs at stake. But as they return to the skies, the environmental chorus will become much shriller than before. Canada's airlines surprised by latest COVID-19 restrictions. Informa Markets, a trading division of Informa PLC. Since the beginnings of aviation, business and premium travel have underpinned long haul flying. CAPA Membership provides access to all news and analysis on the site, along with access to many areas of our comprehensive databases and toolsets. Hopefully, that does lay out some new ideas about anticipating where our new foundation is for growth through the 2030s. The world's low cost carriers have mostly been more aggressive with their COVID-19 strategies. The Government of Canada remains committed to protecting the health and safety of Canadians and reducing the spread of COVID-19 in Canada. New measures introduced for non-medical masks or face coverings in the Canadian transportation system – April 17, 2020 And Amazon is saying that travel will only resume “at a later date”, but that it won't be spending “at the same levels as the past”. And airlines have been doing that all through this year, obviously in very important ways. 8: … Analysis . There is not much deterrence against travelers as airlines want to relax. “Look at what the government has to do now, and the numbers, and see how much money it will need next year,” he said. Internationally yes, it's still going to be important to be able to distribute through more than just the sort of local direct selling network. “It’s a crisis,” aviation consultant Rick Ericsson said on Friday. Canada is announcing strict new entry requirements for all international arrivals. Government involvement is inevitably going to increase. The airline is one of many to have been significantly hurt by the coronavirus pandemic. Our aim is not to dwell too much on the negatives. Estimated traffic flow from 2020 to 2030, as presented during CAPA Live, 11-Nov-2020. Many provinces and territories are also asking all travellers, with some exceptions for essential services, to undergo self-isolation to help limit the spread of COVID-19 in Canada. If you look at it in a granular way: let’s say if we are operating with 70% load factors next year, if yields are as high as 70% of 2019’s... and capacity is down to about 70% of where it was last year – each of them optimistic from where we stand now. Transport Canada is closely monitoring the COVID-19 situation. The financial impact of COVID-19 has been huge to the aviation industry. That's a real concern, I think. If we're going to have a drop somewhere between about a third to a half of last year's revenue, we will need to be looking at some sort of fundamental change in structure of the industry. But also, the LCCs have lower costs, so they can perform better in a low yielding market. More From Health. But what do we do when we go into 2021? There is an enormous number of long haul narrowbody aircraft on order, and once the MAX gets back into operation as well, that number will grow. We highlight five key operational issues that insurers and insureds alike will need to consider in the weeks and months ahead. Aviation Week Network; A message from the President of Aviation Week; Search Search: Close. "We are fully seized with the issue of how hard the air sector has been hit because of COVID-19, and we are committed to providing assistance to Canada's air sector." “All competitors have seen all of the major operators flying to Canada for international services somehow government-backed.”. And there will be greater protectionism emerging as 2021 [and] 2022 unfold, and we struggle to recover. And you can see, even a relatively modest drop there between USD7.40 cents to USD6.98 cents in terms of revenues is going to drive a very substantial gap between cost and unit revenue – even with a large reduction in costs. Aviation 2020 to 2030. The COVID-19 pandemic is having a huge impact on aviation and air travel industry. We offer this product to our active CAPA Members, as well as visitors to our website to help our industry navigate through this crisis. He says the future of the industry is volatile. Copyright © 2021. Given that they haven’t received the international nickel-all sorts of bailouts from the federal government. North Sea worker makes ‘miracle recovery’ in Aberdeen after heart stopped for nearly two hours And that delivers more than an incremental shift – it delivers a fundamental decline. It's a fundamental change. The situation, “he said. Source link COVID-19: What is the future of Canada’s aviation industry? “There was no set standard for the overall development of the program. Revenue is going to reduce in size from somewhere between a third and a half of 2019 levels. For the full year of 2021, the consensus is that business travel is unlikely even to get back even to 40% of 2019 levels. It is time the industry and governments faced up to the fact that restoring the status quo ante is no longer an option. The market has also been characterised by hub-to-hub operations, and the use of mostly widebody equipment. "COVID-19 has led to an unprecedented situation in the aviation sector," said Allison St-Jean, a press aide for the country's new transport minister, Omar Alghabra. These issues include gender diversity, Indigenous workforce requirements, labour shortages, and industry recovery from the devastating COVID-19 pandemic. UAE announces 2,404 new COVID-19 cases and 3 deaths. During the COVID-19 pandemic, experts are struggling to catch news of changes in staff and services for Canada’s two largest airlines, so experts say Canadian aviation unless federal intervention. Consolidation and market exits are inevitable in these circumstances, as debt is mounting massively, and as revenues fail to match that scale. Air Canada Cuts Capacity Again, Citing New COVID-19 Restrictions is published in Aviation Daily, an Aviation Week Intelligence Network (AWIN) Market Briefing and is included with your AWIN membership. 18, which supports COVID health requirements made by the Minister of Health under the Quarantine Act. 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